Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) update of their economic scenarios

Reaching net zero by 2050 could lift growth and employment but would require an inflation-boosting $160 per tonne carbon price — or equivalent “shadow price” — by the end of the decade. This will push up inflation and also raise unemployment in some countries with energy-intensive industries.

Only a relatively quick and orderly transition to a low carbon economy would add to growth while a delayed transition or no action would cut deep into the economy.If these changes occur in an orderly fashion, the scenarios suggest that it could lead to some increase in global GDP, and lower unemployment relative to prior trends.If the transition fails, the scenarios suggest that up to 13% of global GDP would be at risk by the end of the century, even before accounting for the potential consequences of severe weather events.

Currently about a fifth of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions are covered by a carbon price.

More on:

EU-wide pilot exercise on banks’ climate risk by EU Banking Authority

The EU aggregated GAR stands at 7.9%, which identifies the institutions’ assets financing activities that are environmentally sustainable according to the EU taxonomy.

More disclosure on transition strategies and GHG emissions would be needed to allow banks and supervisors to assess climate risk more accurately. It is important banks to expand their data infrastructure to include clients’ information at activity level.

Regarding the EU taxonomy classification, banks are currently in different development phases to assess the greenness of their exposures. The two estimation techniques, banks’ bottom-up estimates and a top-down tool, are considered in the exercise and the report highlights the differences in outcomes.

The scenario analysis shows that the impact of climate-related risks across banks has different magnitudes and is concentrated in some particular sectors. The findings should be considered as starting point estimates for future work on climate risk.

More on:

Innovation is key for the Net‐Zero Emissions Scenario 2050 (NZE)

The @IEA just released the world’s first comprehensive roadmap for the global energy sector to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. They say almost 50% of the emissions reductions needed in 2050 in the NZE depend on technologies that are at the prototype or demonstration stage. This share is even higher in sectors such as heavy industry and long‐distance transport.
This is clearly ambitious, as most clean energy technologies that have not been demonstrated at scale today should reach markets by 2030 at the latest. Technologies at the demonstration stage, such as CCUS in cement production or low‐emissions ammonia‐fuelled ships, are brought into the market in the next three to four years. Hydrogen‐based steel production, direct air capture (DAC) and other technologies at the large prototype stage reach the market in about six years, while most technologies at small prototype stage – such as solid state refrigerant‐free cooling or solid state batteries – do so within the coming nine years.
In the NZE, electrification, CCUS, hydrogen and sustainable bioenergy account for nearly half of the cumulative emissions reductions to 2050. Just three technologies are critical in enabling around 15% of the cumulative emissions reductions in the NZE between 2030 and 2050: advanced high‐energy density batteries, hydrogen electrolysers and DAC.

You can read the report “Net Zero by 2050: A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector” here

Hydrogen’s innovation in the EU framework of Energy and Climate

Hydrogen’s innovation in the EU framework of Energy and Climate: hydrogen holds the potential for helping Europe to reach its targets of a climate neutral 2050. The development of new clean tech industries can help Europe to bounce back even faster, while boosting its competitiveness.

Europe is looking at a power system that will be based on more than 80% renewables by 2050. Hydrogen has the potential to reach 13-14% of Europe energy mix by 2050. Today it only reaches just about 2%.

Europe also looks to hydrogen for its use in industry and areas of transport where emissions are difficult to abate and where electrification cannot be guaranteed. Today’s demonstration projects in steel making are very promising and should be scaled up rapidly.

EU industry holds a strong global position in hydrogen, it simply does not have the infrastructure at scale yet to improve on its goals. Thus, Hydrogen strategy puts forward ambitious targets to install 6 GW of electrolyser capacity by 2024 and 40 GW by 2030 producing up to 10 MTn of renewable hydrogen.

Even if the costs have already been reduced by 60% in the last ten years, it is required investments which is the biggest barrier to innovation. EU decreased its public investment in research and innovation by 13% over the last years.

For this reason, the 672.5 billion Recovery and Resilience Facility will channel 37% of its grants and loans to climate-related investment. Also, Horizon Europe has a budget of 95.5 BEUR, 35% of these funds will be dedicated to the green transition.

More on:

2020 report on the State of the Energy Union

A Hydrogen Strategy for a climate-neutral Europe